How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (LON:ENSI Stock Forecast)


Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We evaluate ENSILICA PLC prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ENSI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENSI stock.


Keywords: LON:ENSI, ENSILICA PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

LON:ENSI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Neural networks, as an intelligent data mining method, have been used in many different challenging pattern recognition problems such as stock market prediction. However, there is no formal method to determine the optimal neural network for prediction purpose in the literature. In this paper, two kinds of neural networks, a feed forward multi layer Perceptron (MLP) and an Elman recurrent network, are used to predict a company's stock value based on its stock share value history. We consider ENSILICA PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ENSI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ENSI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ENSI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ENSI ENSILICA PLC
Time series to forecast n: 21 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENSI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

ENSILICA PLC assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ENSI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENSI stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ENSI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba3
Operational Risk 8485
Market Risk8332
Technical Analysis5774
Fundamental Analysis6160
Risk Unsystematic6181

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 712 signals.

References

  1. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  2. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  3. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  4. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  5. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  6. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  7. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ENSI stock?
A: LON:ENSI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:ENSI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENSI Stock.
Q: Is ENSILICA PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ENSILICA PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ENSI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ENSI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ENSI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ENSI is (n+16 weeks)

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