How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (VMW Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate VMware prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VMW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VMW stock.

Keywords: VMW, VMware, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

VMW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider VMware Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of VMW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Beta)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VMW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VMW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VMW VMware
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VMW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

VMware assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VMW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VMW stock.

Financial State Forecast for VMW Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba3
Operational Risk	74	71
Market Risk	82	67
Technical Analysis	38	36
Fundamental Analysis	32	79
Risk Unsystematic	33	56

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 630 signals.

References

1. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
4. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
5. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
6. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
7. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VMW stock?
A: VMW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Beta
Q: Is VMW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VMW Stock.
Q: Is VMware stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VMware is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VMW stock?
A: The consensus rating for VMW is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for VMW stock?
A: The prediction period for VMW is (n+1 year)

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