How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (Hang Seng Index Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Hang Seng Index prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Hang Seng Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Hang Seng Index stock.

Keywords: Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. Game Theory

Hang Seng Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Hang Seng Index Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of Hang Seng Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Hang Seng Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Hang Seng Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Hang Seng Index Hang Seng Index
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Hang Seng Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Hang Seng Index assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Hang Seng Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Hang Seng Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Hang Seng Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba3
Operational Risk	75	62
Market Risk	63	80
Technical Analysis	78	34
Fundamental Analysis	81	88
Risk Unsystematic	50	49

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 573 signals.

References

1. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
2. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
3. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
4. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
5. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
6. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
7. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Hang Seng Index stock?
A: Hang Seng Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is Hang Seng Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Hang Seng Index Stock.
Q: Is Hang Seng Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hang Seng Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Hang Seng Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Hang Seng Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Hang Seng Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Hang Seng Index is (n+16 weeks)

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