With the up-gradation of technology and exploration of new machine learning models, the stock market data analysis has gained attention as these models provide a platform for businessman and traders to choose more profitable stocks. As these data are in large volumes and highly complex so a need of more efficient machine learning model for daily predictions is always looked upon. We evaluate TRIBAL GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRB stock.

Keywords: LON:TRB, TRIBAL GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. What is neural prediction? ## LON:TRB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We consider TRIBAL GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TRB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TRB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:TRB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TRB TRIBAL GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 13 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

TRIBAL GROUP PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRB stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:TRB Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 3137
Market Risk4342
Technical Analysis6031
Fundamental Analysis7482
Risk Unsystematic6156

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 463 signals.

## References

1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
2. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
3. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
4. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
5. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
6. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
7. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TRB stock?
A: LON:TRB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:TRB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRB Stock.
Q: Is TRIBAL GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TRIBAL GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TRB stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TRB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TRB stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TRB is (n+1 year)