## Abstract

We evaluate Nifty 50 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Nifty 50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index stock.

Keywords: Nifty 50 Index, Nifty 50 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## Nifty 50 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nifty 50 Index Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Nifty 50 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Nifty 50 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## Nifty 50 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Nifty 50 Index Nifty 50 Index
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Nifty 50 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Nifty 50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index stock.

### Financial State Forecast for Nifty 50 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Operational Risk 7560
Market Risk4953
Technical Analysis6281
Fundamental Analysis8766
Risk Unsystematic4389

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 615 signals.

## References

1. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
2. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
3. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
4. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
5. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
6. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Nifty 50 Index stock?
A: Nifty 50 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is Nifty 50 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Nifty 50 Index Stock.
Q: Is Nifty 50 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nifty 50 Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Nifty 50 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Nifty 50 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Nifty 50 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Nifty 50 Index is (n+8 weeks)

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