The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using external indicators, such as commodity prices and currency exchange rates, in predicting movements. The performance of each technique is evaluated using different domain specific metrics. A comprehensive evaluation procedure is described, involving the use of trading simulations to assess the practical value of predictive models, and comparison with simple benchmarks that respond to underlying market growth. We evaluate POPULAR, INC. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BPOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP stock.

Keywords: BPOP, POPULAR, INC., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

## BPOP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock index with traditional time series analysis has proven to be difficult an Artificial Neural network may be suitable for the task. A Neural Network has the ability to extract useful information from large set of data. This paper presents a review of literature application of Artificial Neural Network for stock market predictions and from this literature found that Artificial Neural Network is very useful for predicting world stock markets. We consider POPULAR, INC. Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of BPOP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BPOP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BPOP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BPOP POPULAR, INC.
Time series to forecast n: 22 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

POPULAR, INC. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BPOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BPOP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Baa2
Operational Risk 7242
Market Risk3985
Technical Analysis8574
Fundamental Analysis6785
Risk Unsystematic5187

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 776 signals.

## References

1. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
2. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
3. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
4. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
5. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
6. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
7. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BPOP stock?
A: BPOP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is BPOP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BPOP Stock.
Q: Is POPULAR, INC. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for POPULAR, INC. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BPOP stock?
A: The consensus rating for BPOP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BPOP stock?
A: The prediction period for BPOP is (n+3 month)