With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We evaluate Cousins prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CUZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CUZ stock.

Keywords: CUZ, Cousins, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
3. Nash Equilibria

## CUZ Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Market systems are so complex that they overwhelm the ability of any individual to predict. But it is crucial for the investors to predict stock market price to generate notable profit. We have taken into factors such as Commodity Prices (crude oil, gold, silver), Market History, and Foreign exchange rate (FEX) that influence the stock trend. We consider Cousins Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of CUZ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CUZ stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CUZ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CUZ Cousins
Time series to forecast n: 14 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CUZ stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Cousins assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CUZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CUZ stock.

### Financial State Forecast for CUZ Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Operational Risk 3772
Market Risk4088
Technical Analysis8963
Fundamental Analysis8351
Risk Unsystematic8582

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 519 signals.

## References

1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
2. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
3. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
4. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
5. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
6. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CUZ stock?
A: CUZ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is CUZ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CUZ Stock.
Q: Is Cousins stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cousins is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CUZ stock?
A: The consensus rating for CUZ is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CUZ stock?
A: The prediction period for CUZ is (n+3 month)

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