Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. We evaluate ONE Gas prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OGS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OGS stock.

Keywords: OGS, ONE Gas, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. Dominated Move
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

OGS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper, we introduce a new prediction model depend on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BGRU). Our predictive model relies on both online financial news and historical stock prices data to predict the stock movements in the future. We consider ONE Gas Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of OGS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OGS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OGS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OGS ONE Gas
Time series to forecast n: 12 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OGS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

ONE Gas assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OGS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OGS stock.

Financial State Forecast for OGS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Operational Risk 5656
Market Risk7176
Technical Analysis5972
Fundamental Analysis7576
Risk Unsystematic6177

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 832 signals.

References

1. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
2. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
3. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
4. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
5. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
6. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
7. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OGS stock?
A: OGS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is OGS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OGS Stock.
Q: Is ONE Gas stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ONE Gas is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OGS stock?
A: The consensus rating for OGS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for OGS stock?
A: The prediction period for OGS is (n+6 month)