How do you know when a stock will go up or down? (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Dow Jones Industrial Average Index prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.


Keywords: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. Trading Signals

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba3
Operational Risk 8964
Market Risk4461
Technical Analysis7557
Fundamental Analysis6373
Risk Unsystematic8277

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 596 signals.

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  3. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  4. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  5. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  6. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  7. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is (n+4 weeks)

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