How do you know when a stock will go up or down? (TOL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Toll Brothers prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL stock.

Keywords: TOL, Toll Brothers, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

TOL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Toll Brothers Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of TOL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TOL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TOL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TOL Toll Brothers
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Toll Brothers assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL stock.

Financial State Forecast for TOL Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Caa2	Ba3
Operational Risk	34	48
Market Risk	36	85
Technical Analysis	45	65
Fundamental Analysis	47	83
Risk Unsystematic	32	41

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 706 signals.

References

1. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
2. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
3. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
5. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
6. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
7. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for TOL stock?
A: TOL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is TOL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL Stock.
Q: Is Toll Brothers stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Toll Brothers is HoldBuy and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TOL stock?
A: The consensus rating for TOL is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for TOL stock?
A: The prediction period for TOL is (n+3 month)

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