## Abstract

**We evaluate Toll Brothers prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the TOL stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL stock.**

**TOL, Toll Brothers, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- How do you pick a stock?
- What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
- Trust metric by Neural Network

## TOL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Toll Brothers Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of TOL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Logistic Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TOL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## TOL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**TOL Toll Brothers

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022**for (n+3 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Toll Brothers assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the TOL stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for TOL Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Caa2 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 34 | 48 |

Market Risk | 36 | 85 |

Technical Analysis | 45 | 65 |

Fundamental Analysis | 47 | 83 |

Risk Unsystematic | 32 | 41 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
- Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
- V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
- K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for TOL stock?A: TOL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression

Q: Is TOL stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy TOL Stock.

Q: Is Toll Brothers stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Toll Brothers is HoldBuy and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of TOL stock?

A: The consensus rating for TOL is HoldBuy.

Q: What is the prediction period for TOL stock?

A: The prediction period for TOL is (n+3 month)

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