How Do You Pick a Stock? (CLF Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Cleveland-Cliffs prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CLF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CLF stock.

Keywords: CLF, Cleveland-Cliffs, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
3. Is now good time to invest?

CLF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CLF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CLF stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CLF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CLF Cleveland-Cliffs
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CLF stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Cleveland-Cliffs assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CLF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CLF stock.

Financial State Forecast for CLF Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Operational Risk	83	65
Market Risk	32	50
Technical Analysis	70	52
Fundamental Analysis	44	58
Risk Unsystematic	71	30

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 488 signals.

References

1. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
2. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
3. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
4. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
5. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
6. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CLF stock?
A: CLF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is CLF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CLF Stock.
Q: Is Cleveland-Cliffs stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cleveland-Cliffs is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CLF stock?
A: The consensus rating for CLF is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CLF stock?
A: The prediction period for CLF is (n+4 weeks)

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