Stock market prediction is a major exertion in the field of finance and establishing businesses. Stock market is totally uncertain as the prices of stocks keep fluctuating on a daily basis because of numerous factors that influence it. One of the traditional ways of predicting stock prices was by using only historical data. But with time it was observed that other factors such as peoples' sentiments and other news events occurring in and around the country affect the stock market, for e.g. national elections, natural calamity etc. We evaluate PITTARDS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PTD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PTD stock.

Keywords: LON:PTD, PITTARDS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. What is prediction model?

## LON:PTD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We consider PITTARDS PLC Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PTD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PTD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:PTD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PTD PITTARDS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PTD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

PITTARDS PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PTD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PTD stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:PTD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba2
Operational Risk 3081
Market Risk3786
Technical Analysis6662
Fundamental Analysis4578
Risk Unsystematic3736

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 668 signals.

## References

1. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
2. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
3. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
4. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
5. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
7. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PTD stock?
A: LON:PTD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:PTD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PTD Stock.
Q: Is PITTARDS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PITTARDS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PTD stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PTD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PTD stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PTD is (n+1 year)