## Abstract

**We evaluate Commerce Bancshares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the CBSH stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBSH stock.**

**CBSH, Commerce Bancshares, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What is the use of Markov decision process?
- Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
- Nash Equilibria

## CBSH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Commerce Bancshares Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of CBSH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBSH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CBSH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**CBSH Commerce Bancshares

**Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBSH stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Commerce Bancshares assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the CBSH stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBSH stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for CBSH Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B3 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 34 | 55 |

Market Risk | 57 | 32 |

Technical Analysis | 74 | 84 |

Fundamental Analysis | 51 | 76 |

Risk Unsystematic | 37 | 35 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
- Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
- Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
- Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
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- T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CBSH stock?A: CBSH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

Q: Is CBSH stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBSH Stock.

Q: Is Commerce Bancshares stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Commerce Bancshares is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of CBSH stock?

A: The consensus rating for CBSH is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for CBSH stock?

A: The prediction period for CBSH is (n+8 weeks)