Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We evaluate ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ESGR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESGR stock.

Keywords: ESGR, ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
3. Prediction Modeling

## ESGR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users' moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach. We consider ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ESGR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ESGR stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ESGR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 19 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESGR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ESGR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESGR stock.

### Financial State Forecast for ESGR Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 5539
Market Risk5435
Technical Analysis4963
Fundamental Analysis7046
Risk Unsystematic7990

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 486 signals.

## References

1. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
2. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
3. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
4. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
5. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
7. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ESGR stock?
A: ESGR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is ESGR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESGR Stock.
Q: Is ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ESGR stock?
A: The consensus rating for ESGR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ESGR stock?
A: The prediction period for ESGR is (n+3 month)