## Abstract

**We evaluate FTSE MIB Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Lasso Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the FTSE MIB Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE MIB Index stock.**

**FTSE MIB Index, FTSE MIB Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Is now good time to invest?
- Prediction Modeling
- Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## FTSE MIB Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FTSE MIB Index Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FTSE MIB Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Lasso Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FTSE MIB Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## FTSE MIB Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**FTSE MIB Index FTSE MIB Index

**Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE MIB Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

FTSE MIB Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Lasso Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the FTSE MIB Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE MIB Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for FTSE MIB Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 64 | 69 |

Market Risk | 49 | 66 |

Technical Analysis | 45 | 56 |

Fundamental Analysis | 42 | 57 |

Risk Unsystematic | 69 | 38 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
- A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
- V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
- Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
- R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
- Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FTSE MIB Index stock?A: FTSE MIB Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Lasso Regression

Q: Is FTSE MIB Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FTSE MIB Index Stock.

Q: Is FTSE MIB Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for FTSE MIB Index is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of FTSE MIB Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for FTSE MIB Index is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for FTSE MIB Index stock?

A: The prediction period for FTSE MIB Index is (n+8 weeks)

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