In the finance world stock trading is one of the most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock predictions. We evaluate Harley-Davidson prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HOG stock.

Keywords: HOG, Harley-Davidson, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

## HOG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The classical linear multi-factor stock selection model is widely used for long-term stock price trend prediction. However, the stock market is chaotic, complex, and dynamic, for which reasons the linear model assumption may be unreasonable, and it is more meaningful to construct a better-integrated stock selection model based on different feature selection and nonlinear stock price trend prediction methods. We consider Harley-Davidson Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of HOG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HOG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HOG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HOG Harley-Davidson
Time series to forecast n: 17 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HOG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Harley-Davidson assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HOG stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HOG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 6271
Market Risk6571
Technical Analysis3473
Fundamental Analysis5952
Risk Unsystematic4766

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 523 signals.

## References

1. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
2. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
3. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
5. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
6. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
7. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HOG stock?
A: HOG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is HOG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HOG Stock.
Q: Is Harley-Davidson stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Harley-Davidson is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HOG stock?
A: The consensus rating for HOG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HOG stock?
A: The prediction period for HOG is (n+8 weeks)