Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We evaluate ADRIATIC METALS PLC prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ADT1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ADT1 stock.

Keywords: LON:ADT1, ADRIATIC METALS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. What is a prediction confidence?

## LON:ADT1 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Recently, numerous investigations for stock price prediction and portfolio management using machine learning have been trying to develop efficient mechanical trading systems. But these systems have a limitation in that they are mainly based on the supervised learning which is not so adequate for learning problems with long-term goals and delayed rewards. This paper proposes a method of applying reinforcement learning, suitable for modeling and learning various kinds of interactions in real situations, to the problem of stock price prediction. We consider ADRIATIC METALS PLC Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ADT1 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Sample Set: Neural Network
Time series to forecast n: 17 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ADT1 stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

ADRIATIC METALS PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ADT1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ADT1 stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:ADT1 Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 8090
Market Risk5835
Technical Analysis4130
Fundamental Analysis6463
Risk Unsystematic4572

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 543 signals.

## References

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3. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
4. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
5. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
6. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
7. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
A: LON:ADT1 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ADT1 Stock.
Q: Is ADRIATIC METALS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ADRIATIC METALS PLC is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ADT1 stock?