The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We evaluate MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MVIR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MVIR stock.
Keywords: LON:MVIR, MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.
Key Points
- Is Target price a good indicator?
- Game Theory
- Investment Risk
LON:MVIR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology
The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We consider MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MVIR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4
F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks)
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of LON:MVIR stock
j:Nash equilibria
k:Dominated move
a:Best response for target price
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LON:MVIR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)
Sample Set: Neural NetworkStock/Index: LON:MVIR MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 12 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MVIR stock.
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%
Conclusions
MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MVIR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MVIR stock.
Financial State Forecast for LON:MVIR Stock Options & Futures
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | B1 | B1 |
| Operational Risk | 56 | 44 |
| Market Risk | 86 | 49 |
| Technical Analysis | 67 | 65 |
| Fundamental Analysis | 63 | 72 |
| Risk Unsystematic | 38 | 48 |
Prediction Confidence Score
References
- Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
- N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
- Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
- R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
- N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
- J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
- D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MVIR stock?A: LON:MVIR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:MVIR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MVIR Stock.
Q: Is MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MARWYN VALUE INVESTORS LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MVIR stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MVIR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MVIR stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MVIR is (n+4 weeks)
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