Is now good time to invest? (META Stock Forecast)

The stock market is very volatile and non-stationary and generates huge volumes of data in every second. In this article, the existing machine learning algorithms are analyzed for stock market forecasting and also a new pattern-finding algorithm for forecasting stock trend is developed. Three approaches can be used to solve the problem: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and the machine learning. Experimental analysis done in this article shows that the machine learning could be useful for investors to make profitable decisions. We evaluate Meta Platforms prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the META stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy META stock.

Keywords: META, Meta Platforms, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. Dominated Move

META Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We consider Meta Platforms Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of META stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of META stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

META Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: META Meta Platforms
Time series to forecast n: 20 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy META stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Meta Platforms assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the META stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy META stock.

Financial State Forecast for META Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	43	76
Market Risk	40	53
Technical Analysis	84	38
Fundamental Analysis	38	88
Risk Unsystematic	86	43

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 504 signals.

References

1. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
2. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
3. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
4. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
5. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
6. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
7. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for META stock?
A: META stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is META stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy META Stock.
Q: Is Meta Platforms stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Meta Platforms is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of META stock?
A: The consensus rating for META is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for META stock?
A: The prediction period for META is (n+4 weeks)

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