Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is now good time to invest? (NSE AUROPHARMA Stock Forecast)

Stock market forecasting is considered to be a challenging topic among time series forecasting. This study proposes a novel two-stage ensemble machine learning model named SVR-ENANFIS for stock price prediction by combining features of support vector regression (SVR) and ensemble adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ENANFIS). We evaluate Aurobindo Pharma Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE AUROPHARMA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE AUROPHARMA stock.


Keywords: NSE AUROPHARMA, Aurobindo Pharma Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. Probability Distribution

NSE AUROPHARMA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. We consider Aurobindo Pharma Limited Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE AUROPHARMA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE AUROPHARMA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE AUROPHARMA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE AUROPHARMA Aurobindo Pharma Limited
Time series to forecast n: 26 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE AUROPHARMA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Aurobindo Pharma Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE AUROPHARMA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE AUROPHARMA stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE AUROPHARMA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Operational Risk 8444
Market Risk8041
Technical Analysis4760
Fundamental Analysis3831
Risk Unsystematic6248

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 810 signals.

References

  1. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  2. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  3. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  4. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  5. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  7. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE AUROPHARMA stock?
A: NSE AUROPHARMA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is NSE AUROPHARMA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE AUROPHARMA Stock.
Q: Is Aurobindo Pharma Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aurobindo Pharma Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE AUROPHARMA stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE AUROPHARMA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE AUROPHARMA stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE AUROPHARMA is (n+4 weeks)



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