## Abstract

We evaluate US Small Cap 2000 Index prediction models with Bollinger Bands %B and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

Keywords: US Small Cap 2000 Index, US Small Cap 2000 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms? ## US Small Cap 2000 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Bollinger Bands %B) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: US Small Cap 2000 Index US Small Cap 2000 Index
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

US Small Cap 2000 Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Bollinger Bands %B with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

### Financial State Forecast for US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Caa1
Operational Risk 5632
Market Risk6740
Technical Analysis5235
Fundamental Analysis3740
Risk Unsystematic6245

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 815 signals.

## References

1. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
2. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
3. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
4. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
7. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: US Small Cap 2000 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Bollinger Bands %B and Sign Test
Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock.
Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index is (n+1 year)

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