Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock expected to rise? (Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate US Small Cap 2000 Index prediction models with Bollinger Bands %B and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.


Keywords: US Small Cap 2000 Index, US Small Cap 2000 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Trading Signals
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

US Small Cap 2000 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Bollinger Bands %B) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: US Small Cap 2000 Index US Small Cap 2000 Index
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

US Small Cap 2000 Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Bollinger Bands %B with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Caa1
Operational Risk 5632
Market Risk6740
Technical Analysis5235
Fundamental Analysis3740
Risk Unsystematic6245

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 815 signals.

References

  1. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  2. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  3. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  4. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  7. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: US Small Cap 2000 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Bollinger Bands %B and Sign Test
Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock.
Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index is (n+1 year)

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