This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction. We evaluate Valero Energy prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VLO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VLO stock.

Keywords: VLO, Valero Energy, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

VLO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks' historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks' historical price and technical indicators. We consider Valero Energy Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of VLO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VLO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VLO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VLO Valero Energy
Time series to forecast n: 18 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VLO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Valero Energy assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VLO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VLO stock.

Financial State Forecast for VLO Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 6731
Market Risk4157
Technical Analysis4540
Fundamental Analysis5866
Risk Unsystematic4086

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 696 signals.

References

1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
2. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
3. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
4. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
5. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
6. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for VLO stock?
A: VLO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is VLO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VLO Stock.
Q: Is Valero Energy stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Valero Energy is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VLO stock?
A: The consensus rating for VLO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for VLO stock?
A: The prediction period for VLO is (n+3 month)