Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is ZION a Buy? (Forecast)

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We evaluate Zions Bancorporation prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ZION stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION stock.


Keywords: ZION, Zions Bancorporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

ZION Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices, particularly with respect to the forecast of their trend movements up or down. Exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, we provide numerical analysis of concrete financial time series. In particular, after a brief r ́esum ́e of the existing literature on the subject, we consider the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Net- works (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks techniques. We consider Zions Bancorporation Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ZION stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ZION stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ZION Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ZION Zions Bancorporation
Time series to forecast n: 24 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Zions Bancorporation assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ZION stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION stock.

Financial State Forecast for ZION Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 7932
Market Risk4859
Technical Analysis5679
Fundamental Analysis5879
Risk Unsystematic6943

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 880 signals.

References

  1. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  2. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  3. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  5. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  6. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ZION stock?
A: ZION stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ZION stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION Stock.
Q: Is Zions Bancorporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Zions Bancorporation is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ZION stock?
A: The consensus rating for ZION is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ZION stock?
A: The prediction period for ZION is (n+6 month)

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