Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate Lennar prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LEN stock.

Keywords: LEN, Lennar, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

2. Can statistics predict the future?
3. What is neural prediction?

## LEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Different machine learning algorithms are discussed in this literature review. These algorithms can be used for predicting the stock market. The prediction of the stock market is one of the challenging tasks that must have to be handled. In this paper, it is discussed how the machine learning algorithms can be used for predicting the stock value. We consider Lennar Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of LEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LEN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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## LEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LEN Lennar
Time series to forecast n: 23 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LEN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Lennar assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LEN stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LEN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 5958
Market Risk4976
Technical Analysis7336
Fundamental Analysis4676
Risk Unsystematic7151

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 768 signals.

## References

1. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
2. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
3. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
4. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
5. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
6. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
7. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LEN stock?
A: LEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LEN Stock.
Q: Is Lennar stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Lennar is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LEN is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LEN stock?
A: The prediction period for LEN is (n+4 weeks)

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