Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We evaluate CARNIVAL PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CCL stock.

Keywords: LON:CCL, CARNIVAL PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

## LON:CCL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Fuzzy rough theory can describe real-world situations in a mathematically effective and interpretable way, while evolutionary neural networks can be utilized to solve complex problems. Combining them with these complementary capabilities may lead to evolutionary fuzzy rough neural network with the interpretability and prediction capability. In this article, we propose modifications to the existing models of fuzzy rough neural network and then develop a powerful evolutionary framework for fuzzy rough neural networks by inheriting the merits of both the aforementioned systems. We consider CARNIVAL PLC Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CCL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CCL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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## LON:CCL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CCL CARNIVAL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 13 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CCL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

CARNIVAL PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CCL stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:CCL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 4040
Market Risk4878
Technical Analysis5276
Fundamental Analysis6179
Risk Unsystematic8854

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 557 signals.

## References

1. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
2. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
3. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
4. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
7. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CCL stock?
A: LON:CCL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:CCL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CCL Stock.
Q: Is CARNIVAL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CARNIVAL PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CCL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CCL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CCL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CCL is (n+3 month)

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