LON:EWI Stock Price Prediction


Understanding the pattern of financial activities and predicting their development and changes are research hotspots in academic and financial circles. Because financial data contain complex, incomplete and fuzzy information, predicting their development trends is an extremely difficult challenge. Fluctuations in financial data depend on a myriad of correlated constantly changing factors. Therefore, predicting and analysing financial data are a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. Deep neural networks (DNNs) combine the advantages of deep learning (DL) and neural networks and can be used to solve nonlinear problems more satisfactorily compared to conventional machine learning algorithms. We evaluate EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:EWI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:EWI stock.


Keywords: LON:EWI, EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

LON:EWI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell. We consider EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:EWI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:EWI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:EWI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:EWI EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:EWI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:EWI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:EWI stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:EWI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba3
Operational Risk 8455
Market Risk5282
Technical Analysis8059
Fundamental Analysis8043
Risk Unsystematic4377

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 590 signals.

References

  1. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  2. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  4. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  6. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  7. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:EWI stock?
A: LON:EWI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:EWI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:EWI Stock.
Q: Is EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EDINBURGH WORLDWIDE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:EWI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:EWI is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:EWI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:EWI is (n+16 weeks)

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