Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:MIRA Stock Price Prediction

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We evaluate MIRADA PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MIRA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MIRA stock.


Keywords: LON:MIRA, MIRADA PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

LON:MIRA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We consider MIRADA PLC Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MIRA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MIRA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:MIRA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MIRA MIRADA PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MIRA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

MIRADA PLC assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MIRA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MIRA stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:MIRA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 8746
Market Risk3139
Technical Analysis3480
Fundamental Analysis3866
Risk Unsystematic4888

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 641 signals.

References

  1. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  4. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  5. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  6. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MIRA stock?
A: LON:MIRA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is LON:MIRA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MIRA Stock.
Q: Is MIRADA PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MIRADA PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MIRA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MIRA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MIRA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MIRA is (n+16 weeks)

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