This paper addresses problem of predicting direction of movement of stock and stock price index. The study compares four prediction models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), random forest and naive-Bayes with two approaches for input to these models. We evaluate Lamb Weston prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LW stock.

Keywords: LW, Lamb Weston, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. Market Outlook
3. Market Risk

LW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The nature of stock market movement has always been ambiguous for investors because of various influential factors. This study aims to significantly reduce the risk of trend prediction with machine learning and deep learning algorithms. We consider Lamb Weston Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LW Lamb Weston
Time series to forecast n: 15 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Lamb Weston assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LW stock.

Financial State Forecast for LW Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Operational Risk 4731
Market Risk5441
Technical Analysis8248
Fundamental Analysis8954
Risk Unsystematic3052

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 863 signals.

References

1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
2. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
3. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
4. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
5. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
6. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
7. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LW stock?
A: LW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LW Stock.
Q: Is Lamb Weston stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Lamb Weston is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LW stock?
A: The consensus rating for LW is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LW stock?
A: The prediction period for LW is (n+1 year)