## Abstract

We evaluate Aflac prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AFL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL stock.

Keywords: AFL, Aflac, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Short/Long Term Stocks
3. Prediction Modeling

## AFL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aflac Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AFL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AFL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFL Aflac
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Aflac assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AFL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL stock.

### Financial State Forecast for AFL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 5871
Market Risk7754
Technical Analysis7282
Fundamental Analysis7431
Risk Unsystematic5266

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 690 signals.

## References

1. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
2. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
3. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
4. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
5. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
6. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
7. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AFL stock?
A: AFL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is AFL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL Stock.
Q: Is Aflac stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aflac is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFL stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AFL stock?
A: The prediction period for AFL is (n+3 month)