## Abstract

**We evaluate Aflac prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AFL stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL stock.**

**AFL, Aflac, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What are the most successful trading algorithms?
- Short/Long Term Stocks
- Prediction Modeling

## AFL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aflac Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AFL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Lasso Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AFL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AFL Aflac

**Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022**for (n+3 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Aflac assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AFL stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AFL Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 58 | 71 |

Market Risk | 77 | 54 |

Technical Analysis | 72 | 82 |

Fundamental Analysis | 74 | 31 |

Risk Unsystematic | 52 | 66 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
- Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
- N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
- A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
- Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
- P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
- J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AFL stock?A: AFL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression

Q: Is AFL stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFL Stock.

Q: Is Aflac stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Aflac is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AFL stock?

A: The consensus rating for AFL is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for AFL stock?

A: The prediction period for AFL is (n+3 month)

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