Machine Learning stock prediction: BIIB Stock Prediction


Abstract

We evaluate Biogen prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BIIB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIIB stock.


Keywords: BIIB, Biogen, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Stock Rating

BIIB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Biogen Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BIIB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BIIB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BIIB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BIIB Biogen
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIIB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Biogen assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BIIB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIIB stock.

Financial State Forecast for BIIB Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4958
Market Risk7986
Technical Analysis5354
Fundamental Analysis4338
Risk Unsystematic6663

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 489 signals.

References

  1. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  2. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  3. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  4. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  5. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  6. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  7. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BIIB stock?
A: BIIB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is BIIB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIIB Stock.
Q: Is Biogen stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Biogen is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BIIB stock?
A: The consensus rating for BIIB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for BIIB stock?
A: The prediction period for BIIB is (n+6 month)

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