OKE Target Price Forecast


Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We evaluate Oneok prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OKE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell OKE stock.


Keywords: OKE, Oneok, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. Is now good time to invest?

OKE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using external indicators, such as commodity prices and currency exchange rates, in predicting movements. The performance of each technique is evaluated using different domain specific metrics. A comprehensive evaluation procedure is described, involving the use of trading simulations to assess the practical value of predictive models, and comparison with simple benchmarks that respond to underlying market growth. We consider Oneok Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of OKE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OKE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OKE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OKE Oneok
Time series to forecast n: 17 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell OKE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Oneok assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OKE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell OKE stock.

Financial State Forecast for OKE Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba1
Operational Risk 6978
Market Risk7286
Technical Analysis8768
Fundamental Analysis8960
Risk Unsystematic3165

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 685 signals.

References

  1. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  2. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  3. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  4. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  5. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  6. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  7. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OKE stock?
A: OKE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is OKE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell OKE Stock.
Q: Is Oneok stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Oneok is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OKE stock?
A: The consensus rating for OKE is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for OKE stock?
A: The prediction period for OKE is (n+1 year)

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