Nowadays, people show more and more enthusiasm for applying machine learning methods to finance domain. Many scholars and investors are trying to discover the mystery behind the stock market by applying deep learning. This thesis compares four machine learning methods: long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to test which one performs the best in predicting the stock trend. We evaluate Paychex prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PAYX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PAYX stock.

Keywords: PAYX, Paychex, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## PAYX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This study presents financial network indicators that can be applied to global stock market investment strategies. We propose to design both undirected and directed volatility networks of global stock market based on simple pair-wise correlation and system-wide connectedness of stock date using a vector auto-regressive model. We consider Paychex Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of PAYX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PAYX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PAYX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PAYX Paychex
Time series to forecast n: 20 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PAYX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Paychex assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PAYX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PAYX stock.

### Financial State Forecast for PAYX Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 4687
Market Risk3031
Technical Analysis7333
Fundamental Analysis4587
Risk Unsystematic8961

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 847 signals.

## References

1. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
2. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
3. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
5. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
6. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PAYX stock?
A: PAYX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is PAYX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PAYX Stock.
Q: Is Paychex stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Paychex is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PAYX stock?
A: The consensus rating for PAYX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PAYX stock?
A: The prediction period for PAYX is (n+3 month)