Modelling A.I. in Economics

PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC Stock Forecast & Analysis

The stock market has been an attractive field for a large number of organizers and investors to derive useful predictions. Fundamental knowledge of stock market can be utilised with technical indicators to investigate different perspectives of the financial market; also, the influence of various events, financial news, and/or opinions on investors' decisions and hence, market trends have been observed. Such information can be exploited to make reliable predictions and achieve higher profitability. Computational intelligence has emerged with various deep neural network (DNN) techniques to address complex stock market problems. We evaluate PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PBEE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PBEE stock.


Keywords: LON:PBEE, PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

LON:PBEE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users' moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach. We consider PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PBEE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PBEE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:PBEE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PBEE PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 24 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PBEE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PBEE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PBEE stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:PBEE Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba2
Operational Risk 6759
Market Risk5489
Technical Analysis7471
Fundamental Analysis3752
Risk Unsystematic7565

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 518 signals.

References

  1. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  2. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  3. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  4. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  5. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  6. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  7. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PBEE stock?
A: LON:PBEE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:PBEE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PBEE Stock.
Q: Is PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PENSIONBEE GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PBEE stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PBEE is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PBEE stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PBEE is (n+8 weeks)



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