PEP Target Price Prediction


Abstract

We evaluate PepsiCo prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PEP stock.


Keywords: PEP, PepsiCo, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. What is neural prediction?

PEP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PepsiCo Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of PEP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PEP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PEP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PEP PepsiCo
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PEP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

PepsiCo assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PEP stock.

Financial State Forecast for PEP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 7441
Market Risk3548
Technical Analysis4872
Fundamental Analysis5241
Risk Unsystematic4982

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 769 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  3. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  4. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  5. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  7. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PEP stock?
A: PEP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is PEP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PEP Stock.
Q: Is PepsiCo stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PepsiCo is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PEP stock?
A: The consensus rating for PEP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PEP stock?
A: The prediction period for PEP is (n+1 year)

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