## Abstract

We evaluate Pfizer prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PFE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PFE stock.

Keywords: PFE, Pfizer, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. How do you pick a stock?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

## PFE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Pfizer Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of PFE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Factor)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PFE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PFE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PFE Pfizer
Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PFE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Pfizer assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PFE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PFE stock.

### Financial State Forecast for PFE Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B3
Operational Risk 5644
Market Risk3940
Technical Analysis6540
Fundamental Analysis5756
Risk Unsystematic7056

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 688 signals.

## References

1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
2. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
3. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
4. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
5. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
6. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
7. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PFE stock?
A: PFE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is PFE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PFE Stock.
Q: Is Pfizer stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Pfizer is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PFE stock?
A: The consensus rating for PFE is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PFE stock?
A: The prediction period for PFE is (n+1 year)