Abstract

We evaluate Pinnacle West prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PNW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PNW stock.

Keywords: PNW, Pinnacle West, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. Short/Long Term Stocks

PNW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Pinnacle West Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of PNW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PNW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PNW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PNW Pinnacle West
Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PNW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Pinnacle West assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PNW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PNW stock.

Financial State Forecast for PNW Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 3175
Market Risk8759
Technical Analysis7937
Fundamental Analysis4544
Risk Unsystematic5166

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 462 signals.

References

1. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
2. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
4. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
5. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
6. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
7. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PNW stock?
A: PNW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is PNW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PNW Stock.
Q: Is Pinnacle West stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Pinnacle West is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PNW stock?
A: The consensus rating for PNW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PNW stock?
A: The prediction period for PNW is (n+3 month)