This study aims to predict the direction of stock prices by integrating time-varying effective transfer entropy (ETE) and various machine learning algorithms. At first, we explore that the ETE based on 3 and 6 months moving windows can be regarded as the market explanatory variable by analyzing the association between the financial crises and Granger-causal relationships among the stocks. We evaluate CREDIT ACCEPTANCE prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CACC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACC stock.

Keywords: CACC, CREDIT ACCEPTANCE, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

CACC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Fuzzy rough theory can describe real-world situations in a mathematically effective and interpretable way, while evolutionary neural networks can be utilized to solve complex problems. Combining them with these complementary capabilities may lead to evolutionary fuzzy rough neural network with the interpretability and prediction capability. In this article, we propose modifications to the existing models of fuzzy rough neural network and then develop a powerful evolutionary framework for fuzzy rough neural networks by inheriting the merits of both the aforementioned systems. We consider CREDIT ACCEPTANCE Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CACC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CACC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CACC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CACC CREDIT ACCEPTANCE
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

CREDIT ACCEPTANCE assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CACC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACC stock.

Financial State Forecast for CACC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba2
Operational Risk 7080
Market Risk6179
Technical Analysis5365
Fundamental Analysis8144
Risk Unsystematic8572

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 880 signals.

References

1. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
2. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
4. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
5. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
6. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CACC stock?
A: CACC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is CACC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CACC Stock.
Q: Is CREDIT ACCEPTANCE stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CREDIT ACCEPTANCE is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CACC stock?
A: The consensus rating for CACC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CACC stock?
A: The prediction period for CACC is (n+3 month)