## Abstract

**We evaluate Dow Jones Industrial Average Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.**

**Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Why do we need predictive models?
- Game Theory
- How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

## Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Sign Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

**Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 90 | 42 |

Market Risk | 60 | 48 |

Technical Analysis | 75 | 73 |

Fundamental Analysis | 84 | 42 |

Risk Unsystematic | 46 | 54 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
- Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
- Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
- E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
- Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?A: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test

Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock.

Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?

A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is (n+16 weeks)