Short/Long Term Stocks: KGF Stock Forecast

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. We evaluate Kingfisher plc prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KGF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell KGF stock.

Keywords: KGF, Kingfisher plc, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. Short/Long Term Stocks

KGF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Sentiment Analysis is new way of machine learning to extract opinion orientation (positive, negative, neutral) from a text segment written for any product, organization, person or any other entity. Sentiment Analysis can be used to predict the mood of people that have impact on stock prices, therefore it can help in prediction of actual stock movement. We consider Kingfisher plc Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of KGF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KGF stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KGF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KGF Kingfisher plc
Time series to forecast n: 25 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell KGF stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Kingfisher plc assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KGF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell KGF stock.

Financial State Forecast for KGF Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	58	81
Market Risk	70	53
Technical Analysis	51	45
Fundamental Analysis	55	48
Risk Unsystematic	73	70

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 530 signals.

References

1. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
2. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
3. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
4. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
5. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
6. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
7. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for KGF stock?
A: KGF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is KGF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell KGF Stock.
Q: Is Kingfisher plc stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Kingfisher plc is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KGF stock?
A: The consensus rating for KGF is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for KGF stock?
A: The prediction period for KGF is (n+6 month)

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