## Abstract

**We evaluate UGI Corporation prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Factor ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.**

**UGI, UGI Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Trust metric by Neural Network
- What are main components of Markov decision process?
- Market Risk

## UGI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider UGI Corporation Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of UGI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Factor)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UGI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## UGI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**UGI UGI Corporation

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

UGI Corporation assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Factor ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for UGI Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba2 |

Operational Risk | 85 | 63 |

Market Risk | 64 | 65 |

Technical Analysis | 49 | 76 |

Fundamental Analysis | 66 | 52 |

Risk Unsystematic | 90 | 81 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
- Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
- N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
- Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
- Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
- Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
- B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for UGI stock?A: UGI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Factor

Q: Is UGI stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI Stock.

Q: Is UGI Corporation stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for UGI Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of UGI stock?

A: The consensus rating for UGI is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for UGI stock?

A: The prediction period for UGI is (n+1 year)