Short/Long Term Stocks: UGI Stock Forecast

Abstract

We evaluate UGI Corporation prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

Keywords: UGI, UGI Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trust metric by Neural Network
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Market Risk

UGI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider UGI Corporation Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of UGI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Factor)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UGI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

UGI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UGI UGI Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

UGI Corporation assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

Financial State Forecast for UGI Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba2
Operational Risk	85	63
Market Risk	64	65
Technical Analysis	49	76
Fundamental Analysis	66	52
Risk Unsystematic	90	81

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 577 signals.

References

1. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
2. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
3. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
4. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
5. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
6. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
7. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for UGI stock?
A: UGI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is UGI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI Stock.
Q: Is UGI Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for UGI Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UGI stock?
A: The consensus rating for UGI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for UGI stock?
A: The prediction period for UGI is (n+1 year)

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