Should I Buy Stocks Now or Wait Amid Such Uncertainty? (AEX Index Stock Prediction)

Abstract

We evaluate AEX Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.

Keywords: AEX Index, AEX Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
3. Trading Signals

AEX Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AEX Index Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of AEX Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Beta)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEX Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEX Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEX Index AEX Index
Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

AEX Index assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for AEX Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B3
Operational Risk	76	30
Market Risk	67	44
Technical Analysis	69	33
Fundamental Analysis	66	56
Risk Unsystematic	89	69

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 684 signals.

References

1. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
2. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
3. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
4. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
5. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
6. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEX Index stock?
A: AEX Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is AEX Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index Stock.
Q: Is AEX Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEX Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEX Index stock?
A: The prediction period for AEX Index is (n+16 weeks)

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