## Abstract

**We evaluate AEX Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.**

**AEX Index, AEX Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Can statistics predict the future?
- Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
- Trading Signals

## AEX Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AEX Index Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of AEX Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Beta)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEX Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AEX Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AEX Index AEX Index

**Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

AEX Index assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AEX Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Baa2 | B3 |

Operational Risk | 76 | 30 |

Market Risk | 67 | 44 |

Technical Analysis | 69 | 33 |

Fundamental Analysis | 66 | 56 |

Risk Unsystematic | 89 | 69 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
- Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
- Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
- Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
- Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEX Index stock?A: AEX Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta

Q: Is AEX Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index Stock.

Q: Is AEX Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AEX Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for AEX Index stock?

A: The prediction period for AEX Index is (n+16 weeks)

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