Should I Buy Stocks Now or Wait Amid Such Uncertainty? (MNST Stock Prediction)


Abstract

We evaluate Monster Beverage prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MNST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNST stock.


Keywords: MNST, Monster Beverage, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

MNST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Monster Beverage Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of MNST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MNST stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MNST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MNST Monster Beverage
Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Monster Beverage assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MNST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNST stock.

Financial State Forecast for MNST Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 6059
Market Risk4970
Technical Analysis7461
Fundamental Analysis5776
Risk Unsystematic3251

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 762 signals.

References

  1. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  3. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  4. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  5. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  6. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  7. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MNST stock?
A: MNST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is MNST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNST Stock.
Q: Is Monster Beverage stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Monster Beverage is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MNST stock?
A: The consensus rating for MNST is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MNST stock?
A: The prediction period for MNST is (n+3 month)

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