Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy FLS Right Now? (Stock Forecast)

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate Flowserve prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FLS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS stock.


Keywords: FLS, Flowserve, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

FLS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We consider Flowserve Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of FLS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FLS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FLS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FLS Flowserve
Time series to forecast n: 26 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Flowserve assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FLS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS stock.

Financial State Forecast for FLS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Operational Risk 8079
Market Risk3530
Technical Analysis4133
Fundamental Analysis3660
Risk Unsystematic4769

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 764 signals.

References

  1. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  3. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  4. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  7. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FLS stock?
A: FLS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is FLS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FLS Stock.
Q: Is Flowserve stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Flowserve is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FLS stock?
A: The consensus rating for FLS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FLS stock?
A: The prediction period for FLS is (n+4 weeks)

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