Should You Buy GL Right Now? (Stock Forecast)


In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We evaluate Globe Life prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GL stock.


Keywords: GL, Globe Life, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. Decision Making
  3. Can machine learning predict?

GL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. We consider Globe Life Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of GL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GL Globe Life
Time series to forecast n: 12 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Globe Life assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GL stock.

Financial State Forecast for GL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Operational Risk 3352
Market Risk5430
Technical Analysis8358
Fundamental Analysis6154
Risk Unsystematic6341

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 516 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  2. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  3. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  4. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
  5. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  6. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  7. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GL stock?
A: GL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is GL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GL Stock.
Q: Is Globe Life stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Globe Life is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GL stock?
A: The consensus rating for GL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GL stock?
A: The prediction period for GL is (n+4 weeks)

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