Abstract

We evaluate Howdens Joinery prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HWDN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HWDN stock.

Keywords: HWDN, Howdens Joinery, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

HWDN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Howdens Joinery Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of HWDN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HWDN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HWDN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HWDN Howdens Joinery
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HWDN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Howdens Joinery assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HWDN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HWDN stock.

Financial State Forecast for HWDN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4436
Market Risk8753
Technical Analysis8852
Fundamental Analysis4280
Risk Unsystematic5278

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 466 signals.

References

1. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
2. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
3. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
4. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
5. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
6. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HWDN stock?
A: HWDN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is HWDN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HWDN Stock.
Q: Is Howdens Joinery stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Howdens Joinery is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HWDN stock?
A: The consensus rating for HWDN is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for HWDN stock?
A: The prediction period for HWDN is (n+4 weeks)