Should You Buy NI Right Now? (Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate NiSource prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI stock.


Keywords: NI, NiSource, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

NI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NiSource Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NI NiSource
Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

NiSource assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI stock.

Financial State Forecast for NI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B2
Operational Risk 6483
Market Risk5950
Technical Analysis8962
Fundamental Analysis6135
Risk Unsystematic7235

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 857 signals.

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  2. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  3. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  5. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  7. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NI stock?
A: NI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is NI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI Stock.
Q: Is NiSource stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NiSource is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NI stock?
A: The consensus rating for NI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NI stock?
A: The prediction period for NI is (n+6 month)

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