## Abstract

**We evaluate NiSource prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the NI stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI stock.**

**NI, NiSource, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
- Which neural network is best for prediction?
- What is statistical models in machine learning?

## NI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NiSource Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Polynomial Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**NI NiSource

**Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

NiSource assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Polynomial Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the NI stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for NI Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 64 | 83 |

Market Risk | 59 | 50 |

Technical Analysis | 89 | 62 |

Fundamental Analysis | 61 | 35 |

Risk Unsystematic | 72 | 35 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
- Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
- D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
- Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
- T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NI stock?A: NI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression

Q: Is NI stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NI Stock.

Q: Is NiSource stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for NiSource is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of NI stock?

A: The consensus rating for NI is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for NI stock?

A: The prediction period for NI is (n+6 month)