## Abstract

**We evaluate First Republic Bank prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the FRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC stock.**

**FRC, First Republic Bank, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- How do predictive algorithms actually work?
- Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
- What is neural prediction?

## FRC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider First Republic Bank Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FRC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Stepwise Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FRC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## FRC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**FRC First Republic Bank

**Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

First Republic Bank assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Stepwise Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the FRC stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for FRC Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 50 | 72 |

Market Risk | 90 | 37 |

Technical Analysis | 38 | 69 |

Fundamental Analysis | 38 | 55 |

Risk Unsystematic | 57 | 53 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
- F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
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## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FRC stock?A: FRC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression

Q: Is FRC stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC Stock.

Q: Is First Republic Bank stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for First Republic Bank is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of FRC stock?

A: The consensus rating for FRC is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for FRC stock?

A: The prediction period for FRC is (n+6 month)