Should You Buy Now or Wait? (LON:CTY Stock Forecast)

Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks' historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks' historical price and technical indicators. We evaluate CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CTY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CTY stock.

Keywords: LON:CTY, CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Stock Rating
3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

LON:CTY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine the future prices of stock, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series importantly guide investors' decisions and trades. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the nonlinearity of the time series is pronounced, immediately affecting the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper proposes an intelligent time series prediction system that uses sliding-window metaheuristic optimization for the purpose of predicting the stock prices. We consider CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CTY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CTY stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:CTY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CTY CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 21 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CTY stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CTY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CTY stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:CTY Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Operational Risk	55	49
Market Risk	66	35
Technical Analysis	40	54
Fundamental Analysis	70	51
Risk Unsystematic	33	55

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 854 signals.

References

1. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
2. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
3. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
4. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
5. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
7. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CTY stock?
A: LON:CTY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is LON:CTY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CTY Stock.
Q: Is CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CTY stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CTY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CTY stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CTY is (n+8 weeks)

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