Should You Buy Now or Wait? (LON:GDR Stock Forecast)


Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and increased computational capabilities, programmed methods of prediction have proved to be more efficient in predicting stock prices. We evaluate GENEDRIVE PLC prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GDR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:GDR stock.


Keywords: LON:GDR, GENEDRIVE PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. Nash Equilibria

LON:GDR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Market systems are so complex that they overwhelm the ability of any individual to predict. But it is crucial for the investors to predict stock market price to generate notable profit. We have taken into factors such as Commodity Prices (crude oil, gold, silver), Market History, and Foreign exchange rate (FEX) that influence the stock trend. We consider GENEDRIVE PLC Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GDR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GDR stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GDR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GDR GENEDRIVE PLC
Time series to forecast n: 14 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:GDR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

GENEDRIVE PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GDR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:GDR stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:GDR Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2B1
Operational Risk 3142
Market Risk6079
Technical Analysis3675
Fundamental Analysis3746
Risk Unsystematic6062

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 510 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  3. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  4. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  5. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  7. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GDR stock?
A: LON:GDR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:GDR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:GDR Stock.
Q: Is GENEDRIVE PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GENEDRIVE PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GDR stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GDR is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GDR stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GDR is (n+16 weeks)

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