Neural networks, as an intelligent data mining method, have been used in many different challenging pattern recognition problems such as stock market prediction. However, there is no formal method to determine the optimal neural network for prediction purpose in the literature. In this paper, two kinds of neural networks, a feed forward multi layer Perceptron (MLP) and an Elman recurrent network, are used to predict a company's stock value based on its stock share value history. We evaluate UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:UKCM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:UKCM stock.

Keywords: LON:UKCM, UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Market Outlook
2. Market Outlook
3. What is prediction in deep learning?

## LON:UKCM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Understanding the pattern of financial activities and predicting their development and changes are research hotspots in academic and financial circles. Because financial data contain complex, incomplete and fuzzy information, predicting their development trends is an extremely difficult challenge. Fluctuations in financial data depend on a myriad of correlated constantly changing factors. Therefore, predicting and analysing financial data are a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. Deep neural networks (DNNs) combine the advantages of deep learning (DL) and neural networks and can be used to solve nonlinear problems more satisfactorily compared to conventional machine learning algorithms. We consider UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:UKCM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:UKCM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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## LON:UKCM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:UKCM UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 16 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:UKCM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:UKCM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:UKCM stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:UKCM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Operational Risk 7530
Market Risk7168
Technical Analysis3436
Fundamental Analysis4436
Risk Unsystematic6651

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 860 signals.

## References

1. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
3. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
4. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
5. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
7. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:UKCM stock?
A: LON:UKCM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is LON:UKCM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:UKCM Stock.
Q: Is UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REIT LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:UKCM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:UKCM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:UKCM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:UKCM is (n+4 weeks)

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